Martha

I wonder what Martha Stuart was thinking this week when the $50 billion Ponzi scheme of former Nasdaq chairman Bernard Madoff came undone. (www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1866680,00.html)
The SEC was intent on making an example of Martha Stewart when they sentenced her in 2004 for alleged “insider trading.” This, in hindsight, would have been three years after the suspicious investments of Mr. Madoff were originally investigated by that same SEC. I picture a harried investigator at the SEC getting a call from his boss to drop everything and get on this Martha Stewart case! “But I’m in the middle of an investigation of Madoff,” the harried worker protests. “He’s posted a suspiciously consistent profit of one or two percent almost every month for the past three years. We’re talking billions here!”

This would be, of course, the same SEC who failed to detect anything amiss at Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, etc, etc. But they got Martha Stewart. What amount of money were we talking about back there in the idyllic financial days of 2004? Oh yeah, it was 4,000 shares at $60 a share. Wow. Almost a quarter of a million dollars. That’s right Two hundred and fifty thousand big ones! Today the market doesn’t even react if a company announces a twenty million dollar loss. Any loss that starts with an “M” instead of a “B” doesn’t even register.

I don’t really want to kick a man when he’s down. The SEC isn’t the only culprit here. Moody’s Investors Service, who were ostensibly paid to rate investors for the public good had Countrywide Securities highly rated six months before their irregularities started coming to light. They also missed the Enron debacle until it was too late. An article in The New York Times raises relevant questions about the people who are supposed to be watching the shop. (www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/business/07rating.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=Moody's&st=cse) They quote an anonymous Moody’s managing director in September, 2007: “These errors make us look either incompetent at credit analysis or like we sold our soul to the devil for revenue, or a little bit of both.” He left out the words “criminally negligent”. The Times article paints a picture that Moody’s is involved in, at best what could be called a “conflict of interest.” The SEC is right there along side of them. But at least the SEC nailed that threat to society – the heartless arch-criminal, Martha Stewart.


By Myron Gushlak

Salt

I’m reading Mark Kurlansky’s book, Salt: A World History http://www.randomhouse.co.uk/salt/home.htm. I know that must sound incredibly dull. It is. Very much so. That’s not to say that the book doesn’t have its moments though. Did you know that humans cannot live without salt, but that the body does not make any of it? That sort of fascinating fact jumps out at you every ten or twelve pages. There’s more, of course, but I’ve only reached page 179, so nothing else comes to mind.

Why would I spend what seems like hundreds of hours reading such a scholarly work? Because there is no mention anywhere within its binding of Barack Obama, Senator Pelosi, George Bush, possible cabinet appointments, white house dogs, financial buy outs, the stock market, bail outs for the auto industry, consumer confidence, congress, recessions or unemployment

These days, I can hardly think of anything better to recommend a good book. Never mind that Samuel Johnson’s line comes to mind every twenty or thirty pages. “He is not only dull himself,” Johnson said though I do not remember who he was talking about, “he is the cause of dullness in others.” Sorry, Mark. I’m only telling you what many others are thinking.

Salt was the oil of early civilizations. The strongest, richest countries had the most access to it. That’s the type of thing that Kurlansky can run with for a hundred pages or more. His research is stellar. It must have taken years to write. It’s taking almost that long to read. After nodding out a time or two, I sometimes regress and turn on CNN, but after one or two stories about any of the above, I rush back to this literary sedative, finding great comfort and relief in the endless parade of words. I know I can’t keep on this path for much longer. My business is finance, after all. People rely on me and Blue Water Partners http://bluewater.ky for my expertise in investment banking. But I’m not ready quite yet to dive back into this whirlpool of financial and political information that we are all in the midst of. Soon, though. Soon. Or maybe when I’m finished Salt, I might first sneak a peek at Mark’s other book, Cod: A Biography of the Fish that Changed the World.


By Myron Gushlak

Stock market

“The difference between playing the stock market and the horses is that one of the horses must win.” This was the lament of a BlueWaters lunch last week. Some of the most humorous things I’ve ever heard were about money. Perhaps it is because, as Voltaire said, “when it comes to money, everybody is of the same religion.” Perhaps it is because sometimes all a man can do is laugh. The stock market, as “the experts” tell us, is still trying to find a bottom. Meanwhile, the government announced last week that it would sell $55 billion in bonds next week as part of the massive borrowing plan to pay for its financial rescue packages. Some say that figure might have to expand to over $300 billion by the first quarter of 2009. And that does not include any possible life preserver thrown to the US auto industry. Clearly the bottom has not yet been reached.

I’ve given my opinion several times over the past year about the possible dangers of other countries buying our bonds as part of their Sovereign Wealth Funds, and using the influence that investment provides as political leverage in the future. I’d feel a little bit better about the proposed sale of stocks if the US government released some sort of statement that might indicate that they are at least aware of the possibility of such a conflict of interests in the future. I haven’t heard a word about it. And maybe that is to be expected. A drowning man doesn’t much care who is throwing him a rope. I (still) would like to think that someone at the upper levels of government has their eye on this sort of thing, and a contingency plan for the future exists should the United States suddenly find itself leveraged into decisions it would not otherwise make.

I admit to being snowed under by all the negative economic news on the heels of the exhaustive (and exhausting) presidential campaign. I look back nostalgically to the pre-crisis and pre-election days when Janet Jackson’s exposed breast might be the most compelling story of the day. Today she could run naked through the stock market and all anyone would want to know was what she was buying or selling.

By Myron Gushlak

Blame Game

The Blame Game has started in earnest trying to pin the blame to a specific face (or faces) for the world wide financial crisis. This past week, the New York Times nominated Henry Cisneros, Bill Clinton’s top housing official as a partial culprit. All Cisneros did (as well as the former President) was to try to bring the American dream of home ownership to a wider portion of the population. Borrowing eligibility standards were lowered. In fact, they were practically dispensed with altogether.

A couple of months ago I wrote about well intentioned people trying to help others. I referred to the Dooling novel, White Man’s Grave, while discussing the Myanmar refusal to allow charitable aid into their country after a devastating earthquake. I was merely pointing out that help isn’t always received in the way it was intended. Things sometimes go inexplicably wrong in the charitable transaction, no matter how well intentioned. Many thought my words were misanthropic, at best, and “disgustingly anti-social” at worst. I was accused of using logic to rationalize being un-charitable. In my defense, the Myron Gushlak Foundation says otherwise (), but I did not choose to argue (if I could have). Andrew Carnegie, one of the twentieth century’s most prolific philanthropists said “One of the serious obstacles to the improvement of our race is indiscriminate charity.” One assumes he was serious.

I’m not saying that people should not try to help their neighbor. That would be anti-Christian and politically insensitive. And even though I’m not running for anything, I still would never suggest such a thing. I’m just saying that whenever someone offers to help me, I instinctively put my hand to my pocket to make sure my wallet is safe. “Home ownership for everyone!” much like “a chicken in every pot!” never seems to work out as nicely as it sounds. Somewhere, somehow, there is always some poor cattle rancher going out of business because no one’s buying beef anymore as the pots get filled with chickens. All I’m saying is that the housing market was moving along quite nicely with an almost incessant steady though non-spectacular growth year after year, decade after decade. It wasn’t broke. For sixty years or more, people bought houses, made money slowly and incrementally. Why did anyone feel the need to fix what wasn’t broke?

By Myron Gushlak

Financial Musings

My head is spinning. Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, AIG. Federal bailouts seem imminent for most of them. I cannot calculate how many people have asked me in the past week for my opinion about these historic events. Uncertainty and financial markets mix like oil and water, and this time around is no exception. I would like to add a calming voice to the current situation. There is a history of this sort of thing, and the financial world did not end. Most people do not realize that in the Savings and Loan bailout of the 1980’s, the government was able to recoup most or all of its investment, as I mentioned many blogs ago. I do not want to minimize what has happened either. The Federal government has taken on debt that some estimate may be as much as half a trillion dollars. That sort of thing will have far reaching repercussions. We are in uncharted waters, I think, but the ship is sound.

I am fascinated by the mass psychology of tumultuous financial events such as the one we are currently in. I get impatient to know how it will all turn out, wishing I could fast forward to a more stable point in the future. Not just for the financial gain I would have by knowing the future (though if I’m daydreaming, there is no reason to leave out those sort of fantasies) but just to see who steps forward, who was right, who was dreadfully wrong. You can say a lot of things about the twenty-first century so far, but you can never call it boring. I am also fascinated by the history of such events. The decision of this government to bail out these institutions makes me wonder if the entire Great Depression might have been avoided if the government came in and supported the banks in 1929. That is the most fascinating thing about all this. Did we just avert the second Great Depression, or did we just guarantee its arrival?

By Myron Gushlak

Non-conventional

There is no shortage of things to say about the recently concluded Democratic and Republican conventions in the United States. As a “foreigner”, perhaps my take might be a little different from the standard CNN/Fox News fare. As I’ve stated in the past, one of the perks of my investment banking business, Blue Water Partners, is the opportunity I have to confer with people of almost every nationality from countries spanning the globe.

It has escaped no one’s attention that the United States has nominated a black man for its highest leadership position. While not quite as shocking as the possibility of the Germans nominating a Jew, it has definitely caught the world’s eye. Some of the non-European people I do business with are quite euphoric. There is skepticism about the willingness of the United States to actually elect him, however, especially in the southern states where racism is assumed to be alive and well. But the possibility has garnered plenty of attention.

McCain and Obama could not be more different in their personalities and speaking styles. And as the cable and network talking heads point out ad nauseum in their attempt to be even-handed, both are coming to the party with their own unique talents. A couple of things strike me as a non-American, however. One is the insistence on referring to the next president as the “leader of the free world”. If that is the case, shouldn’t we Canadians (or Europeans) get a vote, or a half vote? It brings to my mind the baseball World Series, which if I’m not mistaken has been won by an American team every year it has been played. But I can shrug that off as normal American hubris.

The Democratic convention was a remarkable display of passion. The Republican convention- not so much, except for the reception given the Vice Presidential nominee, Governor Sarah Palin. Apparently you Americans are big on the Hollywood ending – “virtual unknown PTO mom rises to become the supreme commander of the world” scenario. Life imitating art, for certain! It raised a few eyebrows in the lunch I had with several European businessmen last week. Only in America.

But even that unlikely script did not cause as much of a discussion as the Republican speaker who stated (and I’m paraphrasing) that Obama was ready to turn his back on Iraq while McCain was committed to stay until the war was won. Everyone I’ve spoken to was surprised that that notion was not challenged by the “political experts” after the speech. The consensus among people I’ve met was “what will the Americans have won?” The war has thrown trillions of dollars of debt onto this and future generations. It has cost thousands of American lives, and many more thousands of wounded veterans are returning home requiring medical attention for years to come. The price of gas has almost doubled in the US since the war began, their economy is in shambles, and certainly it would be difficult to defend the argument that the Middle East (and the world by extension) is safer today than in 2001. So what is it that Americans, or at least McCain Republicans think they are on the verge of winning?

At any rate, the open window on the American way of selecting its leaders is always entertaining. It is also helped immeasurably by such American inventions as Tivo and the fast-forward button.

By Myron Gushlak

Education Revolution

Have you noticed what is happening in New Orleans? In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, there is an excitement brewing about education, of all things. Most of the existing pre-Katrina school system was washed away by the hurricane, both literally and figuratively. Even before the hurricane, the system was failing miserably. Statewide, Louisiana ranked as low as 46th out of the fifty United States in student achievement rankings. Instead of rebuilding a broken system, New Orleans decided to become a laboratory for charter schools. More than half of New Orleans’s public-school students are now in charter schools. Early successes have caught the attention of educators nationwide, as well as local governments still unsure about the viability of the charter school concept.

Charter schools are publicly financed, but are run privately. The individual school has much more latitude about the students it accepts and the curriculum it chooses to follow. Paul Vallas, the former head of the school systems in both Chicago and Philadelphia is the superintendent behind this mass experiment. Thus far, the experiment is successful beyond most reasonable expectation. We hear about the failures of New Orleans all the time. It is truly uplifting to hear about the occasional phoenix that every now and then rises from (very wet) ashes.

Robert M. Hutchins has said “We have not had the three R’s in America, we have had the six R’s: remedial readin’, remedial ‘ritin’ and remedial ‘rithmetic.” Perhaps out of the misery of Katrina, something may actually change for the better. Before Katrina, New Orleans and education went together as well as McDonalds and good nutrition. Don’t look now, but the times, they are ‘a changin.

By Myron Gushlak

There’re People in Those Countries

One of the benefits of my relationship with BlueWater Partners is the interesting and diverse people I meet. Last week, I had the opportunity to spend some time speaking with a young lady from the Czech Republic. She is from a modestly wealthy Czech family and her take on the Russia/Georgia issue was interesting. The Czechs are still just getting used to a return to private, non-government ownership of property after the Russians left last time. Her own family has re-taken ownership of property that was controlled by the Russians for over thirty years. She feels that every bite taken by Russia only increases their appetite for further acquisition.

She said the governments of the former USSR countries (as well as other countries with a history of being taken over, like Poland) are eager to have United States military bases or missile sites on their land, but the people aren’t so sure. The governments feel the United States presence will deter possible takeover attempts. The people remain unconvinced. Many feel it is just the beginning of yet another powerful country posturing to take control of their smaller sovereign nations. As a Canadian, I often fail to consider what it must be like to live in a country so tenuously situated in the world. I also sometimes forget that every time a country like Russia moves into a country like Georgia, millions of lives are disrupted. It’s not just the casualties of the fighting who suffer. It is the thousands of people who went to bed owning a family home, with all the history inherent in such a home, and waking up to find that a remote government has decided that the family property would be of better use to the state if it was owned by the government. It should have been obvious to me, perhaps, but the conversation was enlightening. These people are just like you and I. It’s easy to lose sight of that.

By Myron Gushlak

A Nation of Whiners

I love Phil Gramm. He’s from that generation that calls a spade a spade. Today, if someone calls a spade a spade, he needs to apologize to those who might prefer shovels, give a token nod of the head to the other garden tools, and follow that immediately with an emphatic clarification that the spade in question is a hand tool and not a derogatory term, and a further explanation that the speaker in no way is referring to a card suit and has never been a proponent of gambling. I don’t agree with Gramm. I think things are pretty seriously out of whack at the moment. I’m reminded of an old saying, it sounds like it might be from Will Rogers, but I’m not sure, that went “When your neighbor loses his job, it is a recession, and when you lose yours, it is a depression.” In Grammland, everything is obviously just fine.

Senator Gramm was an economics professor at one time, so I’m sure he knows of what he speaks. Or in the very least, he has the credentials to voice an opinion. I don’t see why he needs to apologize for or “clarify” his remarks. And I certainly don’t see why he needs to resign from the McCain campaign. What is everyone so afraid of? Does Gramm calling us a nation of whiners make us whiners or diminish us in some way? Are we so fragile that we cannot look at ourselves and possibly admit, yes, maybe we do whine a little bit now and again. Even if McCain said we were whiners, which I hasten to clarify, he did not, so what? If my mother called me a whiner. I'd still love her. I would probably still vote for her if she was running for something and I was going to vote for her before she called me a whiner, and I’m fairly confident that I came away from that experience relatively un-scarred. I do not point to that moment as the source of my personal shortcomings.

Did anyone call in to work the day after Gramm’s original remarks and beg to take a sick day because of the trauma inflicted by Gramm’s opinion? Did thousands of people fall prostrate from the verbal lashing? Hundreds? Tens,even? No, I don’t get the whole tumult. Much ado about nothing, in my mind. I wouldn’t even care if Obama’s minister called me a whiner. In fact, I don’t think I would care if McCain called me personally on the telephone and said that I and I alone was a whiner. Though if that were the case, I’d probably whine about it in a blog.

By Myron Gushlak

Offshore Drilling

President George Bush was busy managing his legacy again. He is expected to overturn the executive order banning off shore drilling. The ban was originally signed, ironically enough, by his father. Wouldn’t you love to be a fly on the wall at the Bush’s, by the way? Wouldn’t you love to hear what George senior says to Mrs Bush before they turn out the lights at night about their son? Anyway, I digress. The move would be largely ceremonial because there is still a federal law on the books banning such activity. What I find interesting is the comment by Fadel Gheit, oil and gas analyst with Oppenheimer & Co. Equity Capital Markets Division who said, “If we were to drill today, realistically speaking, we should not expect a barrel of oil coming out of this new resource for three years, maybe even five years, so let's not kid ourselves."

I realize that the current state of politics in America does not allow for any vision more far reaching than the end of a political term, but has that attitude spread to the financial sector as well? Is the only motivating force the effect on the next quarter’s numbers? That was the way it was in the ‘70’s with auto makers. No long term investments were initiated that would adversely affect the short tem price of stock. The result was catastrophic for the US auto makers. They never recovered from that hit, and in fact, have duplicated that “strategy” with their heavy reliance on SUVs and small trucks this decade. Are the financial institutions of this country following the same dubious blueprint?

I’m not sure how I feel about the off shore drilling question. I could be swayed either way at this point as I gather information from both sides of the fence. I was just sidetracked by the idea that the time it will take to have an effect is the motivating force. What is five years in the large scheme of things? Five years ago, gas was $1.90 a gallon or so. Bush still had supporters, and a reasonable though modest approval rating from the American people. Offshore drilling would almost certainly be profitable. Candida Scott, an oil industry researcher at Cambridge Research Associates, said oil needs to be priced at $60 a barrel or more to justify deep-shelf drilling. With oil now selling for $145 a barrel, companies are almost assured of profiting from offshore drilling, Scott said. Shouldn’t any discussion start with that? Then an analysis of the possible environmental impacts, with a history of current drilling rigs safety. What are cost construction costs of such initiatives? Who pays? Does the federal government continue to subsidize the cost with huge tax breaks to the oil companies? These are the questions, it seems to me. The time it will take to accomplish the goal is incidental. And as to Mr. Bush’s support – haven’t we reached the point where his support for anything triggers a negative response from most Americans?

By Myron Gushlak

Lawyers

What do you have when a lawyer is buried up to his neck in sand? You’ve probably heard that one. Or one like it. I don’t think there is any one occupation that spawns more jokes than lawyers, but what’s happening in Pakistan is ruining the bad name of lawyers everywhere. Pakistani Prime Minister Pervez Musharraf demanded the resignation of Supreme Court chief justice Iftikhar Muhammed Chaudhry last March, and when Chaudhry refused, Musharraf declared martial law putting thousands of lawyers into prison or placing them under house arrest. Aitzaz Ahsan has led a movement of protesting lawyers throughout Pakistan speaking out for the primacy of constitutional law.

The response has been extraordinary. Ahsan and Chaudhry recently drove from Islamabad to Lahore, a twenty-six hour, 150 mile trip. Tens of thousands of people lined the streets in support and the entire thing was broadcast on television. I cannot think of a more unlikely event occurring in the free world. Would attorneys in America leave golf courses in droves in support of a dethroned Supreme Court justice in this country? I can’t picture it, but I would probably watch it on tv. It is always shocking to me when people stand up for what is right. Maybe it happens all the time and I’m just unaware of it. I applaud the Pakistanis. Their country is a mere fifty-one years old, and they are fighting for its basic principles with a tenacity that is as fierce as it is surprising. Future generations of Pakistani children might not get it when they hear the answer to my original question. “Not enough sand? What does that mean, ‘not enough sand’?”

By Myron Gushlak

The Arcade Fire

Voltaire called Canada “a few acres of snow.” It is that sort of dismissive comment that has made us Canadians particularly proud of our musical heritage. Joni Mitchell, Leonard Cohen and Neil Young, all rock icons, hail from Canada. You might be asking yourself, what does Myron Gushlak know about music? and why should I be listening to an investment banker about what is any good? While the association with the formation of EMusic has given me cache in the financial world, it is probably not enough to get a job at Rolling Stone. So it was with no little skepticism that I listened to the Canadian group, “The Arcade Fire”.

Let me tell you, this man knows his music. Though not a particularly new group, (they have been around for almost five years with two best selling cd’s under their belt) they are relatively unknown outside of the Indie music scene. This is unfortunate. Not for them. They’re doing quite well thank you, but for the masses of people who have yet to hear them. Led by Win Butler and his wife Regine Chassagine they are a vibrant tour de force of music. Besides the usual drums, guitar and bass, they incorporate such un-rock-like instruments as the accordion and the harp. Their music fills a room. I was fortunate enough to see them at Radio City Music Hall in New York, so obviously they are not unknown. Their stage act seems to incorporate a small army of versatile musicians. Violins, brass, percussion, fantastic harmonies and stunning lyrics make them a banquet both audibly and visually. I did not necessarily intend this to be a commercial for the band, but once you see them, you’ll understand why I’m so enthusiastic about them. Their 2008 tour is over after 122 shows in 75 cities in 19 countries, so your best bet at seeing them is U-Tube. Check out the one where they’re all playing in an elevator.
And to make it all too sweet for words, they’re Canadian!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNfWC4Sgkcs

By Myron Gushlak

Media

Two months ago I wrote about Eliot Spitzer’s highly publicized sex scandal. I did it light heartedly, because to be frank, I didn’t really care all that much . Now just this past week, another New York politician, republican congressman Vito Fossella was the headline darling after it was discovered he had a “love child” from an extra-marital affair. I don’t really care about that too much either, and no, I’m not going to try to make a joke of the family value spokesman’s fall from grace as I did with Spitzer – it’s too damn easy. No, what I want to comment on is how quickly this news story disappeared from the scrutiny of the press. I defy you to find a paragraph about Fossella anywhere.

I understand that the Chinese earthquake or the Myanmar cyclone were more newsworthy, but that still does not explain how quickly Fossella fell off the media earth. It raises interesting questions. Somebody somewhere seemed to have decided that an out of wedlock baby was far below an expensive call girl relationship on some sort of scandal rating index. Can we deduce that it was “society” that made this “ruling”? Did you and I by some sort of secret society tabulation decide that its newsworthiness was a weak step sister to Spitzer’s hooker? Was the disappearance related to internet hits? Letters to the editor? John Stewart or Letterman references? I find it more fascinating than the actual scandals how it is decided what is reported and how, and as in this case, for how long.

What is said about Fossella is far less interesting to me than who makes the decision to say anything or to not say anything. I picture a harried Perry White type of editor checking an Einsteinian formula to determine how many inches needs be devoted to: congressman/sex scandal/New York/Blue state/ Italian American/Republican/DUI.
If e equals excess, well, never mind, you get the point. If not deciding ultimately becomes a decision, then choosing not to comment becomes a very loud editorial comment. I wish Marshall McCluhan was still alive. I’d pay great sums of money to hear his take on media in the 21st century.

By Myron Gushlak

Helping the Economy

The name of Milton Friedman is probably heard more today than when he was alive. The New York Times called him the godfather of the credo that “prosperity springs from markets free of all government management.” The investment banker Myron Gushlak captures the essence of Friedman when he paraphrases, “If the government ran the Sahara desert, we’d run out of sand in five years.” In these days of public clamoring for government intervention into the economy, Friedman stands alone, metaphorically, of course; he died in 2006. His principles, once embraced by Ronald Reagan, have fallen into disfavor.

The wonderful novel, White Man’s Grave, comes to mind every time I hear someone stand and call for intervention into the free market system. With apologies to the author, Richard Dooling, part of that novel is about a corporate lawyer who in gratitude to an African village for helping to locate his missing Peace Corps son, sends over tons of grain (I think it was rice, but I don’t remember) to help feed the starving inhabitants. Half of the “gift” went immediately to corrupt village officials. The remainder caused a flood in the grain market, dropping the price precipitously, and resulted in the bankruptcy of the few legitimate farmers in the area. The lawyer, back home in Chicago and unaware of the negative consequences of his generosity, was smugly self congratulatory with his largesse.

Whether or not to help is a fundamental human dilemma. When your child falls, should you help him up or let him struggle to his feet on his own? The economy has fallen. I watch it struggling, unsure of what might be the best thing to do. I wish I had a little more faith that our leaders had a better idea than I.

By Myron Gushlak

Sovereign Wealth Fund

There’s a new kid in town. Actually, he’s not a new kid at all, but he seems to have caught everyone’s attention now that he’s grown up. I’m talking about the “new” financial entity, the Sovereign Wealth Fund. A SWF is an investment tool used by countries to invest in other countries. Over the past five years, the number of new funds has spiked. The International Monetary Fund estimates that $3 trillion is currently being invested, and that amount could jump to 12 trillion by 2012. Though that number looks futuristic, it is only four years from now.

China’s recent investment (I hesitate to use the word “bailout”) in the struggling US companies, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone Group has raised more than a few eyebrows. And China’s SWF investments are less than a quarter of what the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority currently holds. Most sovereign funds do not disclose exactly where their money is being invested. The obvious big issue is whether these investing countries will continue to use Sovereign Wealth Funds solely as financial investments, or will they begin to use their power as political muscle. According to Lawrence Sommers, the former United States Treasury Secretary, right now the goal of these funds is “to maximize the value of their shares.” But, he cautions, “It is far from obvious that this will over time be the only motivation of governments as shareholders.”

For a financial guy, this makes me giddy. This is as exciting as human g-nome developments to biologists. I wish I could fast forward a few years to see how this all plays out. The trenches of the next world war may be on the stock market floor, and the soldiers may all be wearing suits, pardon the hyperbole. Just thinking about this is like chugging a can of Red Bull. Now I’ll never get to sleep.

By Myron Gushlak

Prohibition

A ruling this week in a New Jersey appeals court said that the owners of a tavern can be sued for allowing a customer to drive away drunk, even if they were not serving him alcohol. I had to read that twice when I saw it in the newspaper. The specific bar in question was in the resort town of Cape May. The lawsuit was brought by the family of a passenger killed in a crash in a car driven by the drunk man. The drunk man apparently was already drunk when he got to the bar, and had a flask that he hid away to continue his partying. No one contradicts that the bar did not serve any alcohol to the eventual driver. The story caught my eye for a couple of reasons, one having to do with the accountability issue, the other more convoluted, perhaps. I’m not saying that the death of the twenty-one year old wasn’t tragic, nor am I saying that the driver shouldn’t be held accountable in some way. But could a ruling be more illogical? If the man stopped to buy a paper at a 7-11 and displayed drunken behavior, should the clerk be also held accountable? How about the parking lot attendant, if there was one? At what point does the drunk man become accountable for his own behavior, or the dead man partially accountable for getting in the car with someone so obviously impaired to begin with? The ruling is justice run amok.

When Prohibition began in 1920, the country was caught in an ideological war between the Drys, those against drinking, who were often armed with mandates mined from the Bible, that most flexible of all documents, and the Wets, who thought drinking was none of the government’s business. Thirteen years, five months and nine days later, Prohibition was repealed. The number of bars in New York tripled during Prohibition, by the way, and the repercussions from the legacy of organized crime started in the 1920’s continues today. Unless you live within walking distance of a local watering hole, or live in a city where mass transit is readily available, there is a de facto prohibition taking place today. The driving while impaired laws are harsh, the penalties severe. I’m not saying that they shouldn’t be. I’m just pointing out what is clear to me, that we are in a Prohibition period far more effective than the historical one referenced. Ask any bar or tavern owner. What used to be a lucrative business is now an iffy financial proposition. Listen to the doors slamming closed on bars across America.

I guess I’m a Wet at heart, and I don’t even drink that much. I hate the social climate that fosters such decisions as the one the Jersey court rendered. I hate that everyone is always blamed for someone else’s transgressions. I hate that the government spends more time with such matters than the real issues. It’s an easy position for any politician to take. “I’m against drunks! Vote for me.” Who isn’t? But I can’t help but feel that something is being lost in the transaction. And I have a feeling I’m going to miss it when it’s gone.

I know what you’re thinking, and let me cut you off at the pass. My next blog will not be about the benefits of cigarette smoking, nor a defense for “slapping the old ball and chain around a bit.” It’s just that I get tired of someone’s knee jerk reaction hitting me in the chin.

By Myron Gushlak

Bear Sterns

The fire sale of Bear Stearns to JP Morgan this past weekend is the “Brittany Spears” event of the week. The wave of media has crashed over all the principles. I’m certain Eliot Spitzer is grateful for the relief this event provides him as the media scurries off en masse to cover the newer, hotter, better, sexier story. Experts proliferate on every tv station, armed with the powerful wisdom of hindsight. The incendiary words “government bailout,” are bandied about, looking, I suppose, to rile up the masses into a lather. It’s pretty easy to come down hard against the idea of “rewarding a private industry guilty of egregiously bad judgment and business practices.” But what does that really do towards solving the problem? I don’t know why that is always the approach the media takes with every news story, but this “chicken little – the sky is falling” approach certainly seems intentional to me. Obviously, it sells papers and draws viewers.

If I owned a media outlet, I might try a new approach. I might try to allay the fears of my readers/listeners. How? For example I might tie this story to a report about what happened when the US government bailed out the Savings and Loans twenty some years ago. It is my understanding that the Federal government actually made money on that bailout. Eventually, it sold the properties it took over at a profit. It took a few years to accomplish, and God knows, in a few years this story will be a thousand stories behind us in our rear view mirror, with nary a reporter in sight to record the final fallout of that hot story of March 2008. It seems with the pace of today’s world, that nothing in the past brings any relevant weight to the present. Already there are media sharks searching for the next hot story. What we lose sight of in this media driven society is that these are more than stories and sound bytes. They are “events” with ties to the past and ties to the future. They live on long after the media spotlights are dimmed. It’s called “perspective” and it sure looks like we don’t have any.

By Myron Gushlak

Mr. Spitzer

The governor of New York, Eliot Spitzer, was implicated today in a prostitution ring. Allegedly, he called a prostitute. I wanted to get my two cents in before anything more specific is proven or even alleged, just so I can have an opinion unfettered by facts. When I heard the news, I smiled. I admit it. A big stupid grin came over my face. Not because I have anything against Mr. Spitzer. I know almost nothing about him. Nor do I have anything against his politics. I confess I don’t know where he stands on anything. I just love the irony of a man who runs on an ethics platform, and is known as “Mr. Clean” being tied to a prostitute, no pun intended.

You can consider it a flaw in my personality if you’d like. I have no defense. I also laugh when evangelist preachers are implicated in fraud or sex scandals…Priests with young boys? Yeah, I snickered a few times. I don’t know why. I don’t laugh when people trip and fall on the street, but I probably would if they first bragged to everyone that they were such great walkers. I agree with George Orwell who said “saints should always be judged guilty until they are proven innocent.” I’ll stop smiling soon. Really. Sorry to hear of your news, Mr. Spitzer. Really. I mean it.

By Myron Gushlak

Watching

It is important for Americans to remember that their election process does not exist in a vacuum. The process does not take place in a voting booth behind a drawn curtain. It takes place in the open, often under the far too flaw-highlighting bright lights of world attention. Particularly, I think, the candidacy of a minority man, Barack Obama, and a woman, Hillary Clinton draws international attention to the US process of choosing leaders. I’m certain the chaotic practice of caucuses, delegates and primaries seems quite insane to many people in many different countries. As Winston Churchill said, “democracy is the worst form of government in the world - except for all the others.”

The world court of public opinion is not swayed by jingoistic sound bytes about what America wants to be. It can see American protestations about human rights in China on a split screen side by side with Guantanemo. There is no spin doctoring of the pre-emptive war with Iraq with platitudes about self determination. There are no filters between the juxtaposition of monitors at remote third world polling places and the Supreme Court decision after the Gore-Bush Florida election. World public opinion does not concern itself with being politically correct. It does not have to worry about offending anyone. Value judgments are being made everyday about what the United States says it stands for and what it does. It is important that the United States does not preach one thing while doing another.

The world can also see that the United States has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the free world. It was forty years ago this summer during the Chicago democratic convention that the chant first went up. “The whole world is watching”. People in Serbia are watching, people in Palestine, Israel, and Venezuela. One vote says a lot to the rest of the world about who America is and what it stands for. So does one non-vote.

By Myron Gushlak

The Great Depression

The lingering power of the Great Depression amazes me. It began seventy-eight years ago and ended incrementally as the Second World War began. That means that those who were at least ten years old and able to have some first hand memories of its devastating effects are in their eighties or nineties, and yet it looms over all of us like a malevolent god. It seems that every article I read about the current mortgage crisis in the United States sooner or later gets around to a comparison with The Great Depression. “Possibly more foreclosures than at any time since TGD,’ or “more bank failures since TGD.” are almost required components of any media coverage. It predates the lives of ninety percent of all Americans, yet it is still the milestone of financial failure.

I don’t mean to minimize the effects of TGD, but it does cause me to pause and consider. The very mention of those three dreaded words commands attention like no other. Say the words “World War Two,” and people nod and might tell an anecdotal story of an uncle or grandfather who fought. It belongs in the black and white world of yesteryear. The majority of today’s college students couldn’t even name the major powers involved in the conflict. Say the words “influenza epidemic” and the reaction received is similar to that of a science fiction movie, except less real or terrifying. But The Great Depression? A shudder and a hushed question follow. “Could it really happen again?”

I can think of no event with more of a lingering impact to modern man, and I can include Biblical stories in that statement. The destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah or Noah’s flood story are child’s play. Even modern disasters like Chernobyl or Darfur do not carry the clout of TGD. I try to keep that in mind as I read articles about the mortgage crisis. Yes, it is a major problem and it will have rippling effects throughout the economy, but I think we’ve lost perspective. The scariest Halloween costumes in America in the past seventy-five years are not Freddy Kruger or aliens from outer space. They are costumes of a hobo with his earthly possessions on a stick or a WPA worker in khaki pants and a shovel in his hand. Those are the most terrifying images to Americans. The next time you read an article about the mortgage problem, keep that in mind. It will help with your perception.

By Myron Gushlak

Fleeting Success

How do you measure success? A promotion at work? A raise? Perhaps having an article published r the purchase of a new vacation home. If I asked a hundred people, I'd get ninety-four different answers. But, unfortunately, the feeling of success is an ephemeral as a kiss. A moment of self-congratulations and contentment is quickly followed by a look to the horizon. What's next? You see it often if you follow sports. After applauding a player or a coach for a milestone victory, the question is immediately posed about the possibility of repeating the accomplishment. "What about next year?"

It's difficult tot savor a moment. We're not trained for it. It reminds me of a Kurt Vonnegut quote. "I urge you to please notice when you are happy, and exclaim or murmur or think at some point, 'If this isn't nice, I don't know what is'."

By Myron Gushlak