The million dollar question as we hit the mid point of the third quarter of 2009 is when will the recession end? I am reminded of the age old story of a business owner asking his accountant what was the sum of two plus two. The accountant replied, “What do you want it to be?”
A quick perusal of the web will find you a prediction that the end of this current quarter will mark the low point of the economy, to one that predicts the effects of the recession will last until the end of 2010. The financier, Conde Nast, who made a bit of a name for himself by predicting the real estate collapse back in 2002 illustrates the problem. He has predicted that it will end soon (www.portfolio.com/views/columns/economics/2009/01/07/Spotting-Signs-of-Economic-Recovery), and that it will not end anytime soon. (www.portfolio.com/views/columns/economics/2008/11/11/Economic-Predictions-for-2009) . Nast may be the only one, then, certain to be correct when all is said and done. Feel like relying on the leading economic indicators as the tea leaves for the future? Not so fast. The interpretation of the meaning of these indicators is as diverse the crowd at a United Nations Bake Sale.
At Blue Water Partners, www.BlueWaterPartners.com we are well aware that people are always making money no matter how bad the economy. I suspect the end of the recession will come at different times for each of us, or to paraphrase George S. Kaufman, “It depends on your threshold for pain.”
By Myron Gushlak
